Tuesday, November 02, 2004
An oversight . . .
I'll do so, state-by-state, but I don't have time to do the math to see how this pans out in the EC tally.
New Hampshire - Kerry by a nose. This will be sufficient to bring Kerry some serious worry, as the race will be too close to call until around 80% of NH precincts are in.
New Jersey - Bush will win this state by a very narrow margin. Expect the DNC to legally challenge these results, provided Kerry is within striking distance (less than 20 EVs). This won't be called until a few hours after polls close.
Pennsylvania - expect an initial call for Kerry from one or more of the MSM outlets. This won't last, as rural boxes come in overwhelmingly for Bush, the Kerry lead from Pittsburgh will be overwhelmed, and the state will go to Red. Bush by 2-3 percent.
Ohio - The MSM will hold this one as "too close to call" until enough other states have been filled for Bush. The DNC will hold this as their Florida for 2004, unless (and I hope this is the case) the margin is too wide for Kerry to overcome, even with Ohio and New Jersey.
Florida - The Sunshine State will go big for Bush this time. CBS will call it for Kerry based on Miami returns in an effort to re-create the 2000 results--but Panhandle folks won't be fooled again. Bush's supporters, energized by Jeb, will turn out in droves this time, making it a 50K spread or greater.
Nationwide - Overall, Bush, and by a significant popular vote margin. If somehow, he loses on EVs, expect Democratic pundits and commentators to laud the virtues of the Electoral College. I dont' expect that, though. Bush is poised to carry as much as 18% of the black vote, nearly 50% of women's votes, around 30% of the Jewish voting bloc, and maybe as much as 25-30% of the Hispanic vote. Bush will wait until about midnight in D.C. to allow Kerry plenty of time to do the proper thing an concede, but Kerry won't. At about that time, Bush will claim victory. During his speech, never the one to behave as a gentleman should, Kerry will take the podium in his HQ to start a tirade about how the election isn't over until all the votes are counted, citing the numerous provisional ballots that haven't been counted, all the "questionable tactics" used by Republicans in the polling places, especially in Ohio and New Jersey, and the absentee ballots that were thrown out because they weren't signed or because the signatures were deemed forgeries. Despite what he says today about a "stronger America" after the elections and his desires that Americans be again unified after the vote, he, like Gore, will never make a legitimate concession speech, in his last public "flip-flop". After one more uneventful and unremarkable term in the Senate, he will retire from the public spotlight. Bush, on the other hand, will remain in office and push to amend the Constitution in such a way that Arnold can run in 2008.
Hey, I figure if I hit 50% of the above accurately I'll be doing as well as most folks today . . . lol